This is a superb video explaining why Russia is invading Ukraine. It lays out the kind of complexities I was warning about in this post from a few days ago. My intuition was that Russia was backed into a corner, with little choice left if they wanted to ensure their own survival-- and the video confirmed my suspicions.

I think the Russians are full-in, with their backs against the wall. They may even use nuclear weapons if they are pushed any harder. To them, this is an existential crisis. I heard a top Russian "journalist"-- State-backed, sort of like a Russian CNN anchor-- say something like "we may use nukes, because what's the point of a world without Russia in it?"

Clearly, the West needed and need to take Ukraine NATO membership off the table. It's not too late. Unfortunately, I don't think that will happen. My mother-in-law borrowed me a copy of "The Fourth Turning", a book I'd been meaning to read for many years. Newt Gingrich is correct here, and even tosses out "77 years", a number very close to the typical four seasons cycle duration.

We're about to see a "reset" in the world order, and no one is going to back down. Instead of having empathy and making conciliatory gestures towards Russia to get them away from the ledge, the West is going to double down on the sanctions, and the US may even begin military operations directly against the Russians. I hope it doesn't go that way, but history tells me it probably will.

Next, China will invade Taiwan. I'm essentially expecting that, maybe even in the next week or two; from their perspective, it's "strike while the iron is hot". Then we'll be back to World War II, with a European theater, and a Pacific theater-- except this time, all of the powers involved will be nuclear armed. China has been making thousands of hypersonic missiles for a reason-- and those missiles can carry nuclear payloads.